Submitted by YOUR NEW REALITY

They’re known in banking circles as “black swan sightings”. We’d probably call them worst case scenarios. They are the ‘outrageous predictions’ some banks make as part of their general forecasting of the economic road ahead.

How bad can regional economies get in a 12 month period? How high could oil prices go? Will world credit dry up? And what will be the fallout if such predictions come true?

Copenhagen-based Saxo Bank’s black swan sightings for 2008 are indeed grim, and in some cases absolutely mind-boggling. Ron Paul winning the presidency of the United States would come about, predicts Saxo, in the event of a massive self-immolation of the American stock market and the beginning of a new Great Depression.

Saxo claims they have recent form on black swan sightings, with “almost a quarter of our outrageous predictions for 2007 were close to or 100 percent accurate” :

    “Our outrageous predictions are not a science, but are meant to incite thought and debate in the market…”

Here’s some of Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions For 2008 :

* Ron Paul elected as president of the US in 2008

* S&P500 falls 25 per cent from its 2007 high

* Plunges and then small gains in the value of the Euro and UK Pound

* At least three of the largest 10 US home builders will go bankrupt

* Chinese stock market falls 40 per cent by late summer

* Grain Prices to double again, having already doubled in the past 12 months

* Oil rockets to $175 a barrel

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