American Blog

Submitted by YOUR NEW REALITY

Whatever President Bush was expecting to mark the beginning of his last year in the White House, it is hard to believe he was expecting a Pakistan civil war. During his brief, extremely tense statement today on the Bhutto assassination, Bush was clearly rattled, and he literally ran from the podium as soon as he finished speaking, without taking questions. He disappeared into what would have to have been one extremely tense and nerve-wracking security meeting.

Pakistan is alive with chaos, destruction and death tonight. Court houses and government buildings are burning, police are being shot, mass demonstrations are already beginning. ‘Revenge’ attacks will only increase the chaos and death toll. President Musharraf’s declaration of three days of national mourning is unlikely to do much to contain the fury and violence.

Russian government ministers are already warning of an onslaught of terrorism in Pakistan, and the United Nations Security Council is in an emergency meeting.

But how far will the Pakistan opposition go? How much revenge will they allow their supporters to unleash, and will opposition leaders even be able to rein in the blood lust of their own people?

They’ve already had spokesmen all over the cable news channels (Sky News in particular) blaming Musharraf directly for the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, claiming that his military and security services ignored their pleas for help in keeping Bhutto safe and for failing to round up “known enemies” of the woman who was set to become prime minister after the January 8, 2008 elections.

The fallout for Bush’s ‘War on Terror’ plans will be intense and hard to control. Bhutto’s death is now being talked of as the “wrench” thrown into Bush’s plans for Pakistan in 2008. The old plans are useless, worthless.

Bhutto was the key for Bush to get his special forces established in Pakistan so they could work their way through the Taliban-aligned tribal lands, chasing out militant leaders, busting up isolated training camps and cutting off the flow of new recruits for the Taliban’s war against NATO forces across the border in Afghanistan.

Bhutto was the way into Pakistan for the US, in a way that was least likely to outrage Pakistanis in majority numbers. Now she is gone, the US will likely move in with force behind them, and above them.

Pakistanis were already learning that the US was planning to ramp up its special forces numbers inside the country, days before Bhutto was assassinated. It will be easy for the opposition to claim that Bhutto’s death was the work of someone else other than simply ‘Al Qaeda militants’.

Then there, is course, the fact that Pakistan is heavily armed with nuclear weapons.

If revolutionary actions by the opposition led to the fall of Musharraf, would they take over? Or would extremists inside the security services and military step in and try to stop the takeover?

Pakistanis lost the last vestiges of tolerance for Musharraf’s military dictatorship when he declared martial law in November. He must be only days, if not hours, away from announcing that martial law is back in force.

It’s all but impossible to imagine how Musharraf could allow the elections to go ahead in only 11 days time, and utterly impossible to imagine how he could win the election now even if he did.

The chaos and death to come between now and New Years’ Day may only be the start.

Pakistan will be the new front of the ‘War on Terror’ in 2008 and the US must already be scrambling to dramatically increase its special forces numbers inside the country, not just to go after the Taliban allies in the tribal lands, but to keep whoever is in control of the country in a month’s time, in place of Musharraf, well away from the nuclear triggers.

If it comes down to a question of who will control Pakistan should Musharraf’s regime falls, Russia and China will also feel duty-bound to get involved, along with India. The Great Game continues.

MORE TO COME…

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